Not so Nasty News April 3rd

Item #1: Are you baking bread?

The Wall Street Journal had an article about folks, being closed in, making bread. The subtitle include the word “failing.”
The photo here involved a bread making machine and flour 3 years past it best by date.
I had not looked for flour or yeast, nor have I made any bread, nor have I been locked down. See item #2.
The interesting quote in the WSJ article is: “It’s a weird phenomenon,” he said. “I thought, ‘why is everyone making bread? I don’t know, but I’m going to do it too.’
Thus, along with toilet paper, store shelves have been freed of their load of flour and yeast.
I assume people have had less trouble with their toilet paper use than their flour and yeast skills.
Learned the phrase “peak provisioning madness” (PPM) from this article.

Item #2: The good & the bad

The good news is that our vine pruning ended on Thursday. The bad news is that our vine pruning ended on Thursday.
The weather has been weird – and that is the only thing normal about it. Cold temperature and lack of sun kept the vines from starting to leaf-out. That’s good because the new growth is quite delicate and will break at the slightest touch. I worked while wearing several layers and a wool cap. We finished in a section underlain with basalt rock. Post holes there are not, and thus no posts, and no wires. The vines are “head pruned.” White Heron’s vines are much younger than those in the photo. Those are at least 35 years old, in South Africa.

I’ve mention last week that pruning vines is considered an “essential” occupation. Thus, with the finish on Thursday, I am no longer essential. Maybe I’ll bake bread.

Item #3: Items from lock-down
It has been noted that liquor stores are open because booze is “essential”. Schools are closed because they are not essential. I think I’ve gotten that right!
Home schooling results seem to vary considerably. That’s not surprising.
There is this interesting question though. If your kids are mixing cocktails for you – does that count as chemistry class?

Item #4: Two of my favorites.

Item #5: Mathematical modeling

Various groups and individuals have been using “models” to predict the peak of the virus panic. Numbers have been all over, up, down, and sideways. It is hard to keep track. I don’t think they know what they are doing. And the data is, to this point, useless.
I have used a very complicated model to predict when we will run out of toilet paper. With exact starting data, meticulous record keeping, and a simple 2 parameter model, I predict the date will be May 2nd at Noon plus or minus 3 hours.

And that, for this week, is the not so nasty news.